Preseason Rankings
UC Riverside
Big West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#282
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#173
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#317
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#190
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 3.6% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 16.9% 42.1% 14.9%
.500 or above in Conference 29.6% 48.0% 28.1%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 13.7% 6.8% 14.3%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round1.2% 3.2% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.30.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.80.0 - 1.2
Quad 20.3 - 2.90.3 - 4.1
Quad 32.2 - 8.02.5 - 12.1
Quad 47.8 - 6.710.3 - 18.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 82   @ Oregon St. L 61-73 7%    
  Nov 10, 2018 246   @ Portland St. L 75-77 34%    
  Nov 13, 2018 139   @ UNLV L 70-79 14%    
  Nov 22, 2018 168   @ Pacific L 66-72 21%    
  Nov 23, 2018 231   Elon L 68-70 41%    
  Nov 24, 2018 230   Abilene Christian L 68-70 41%    
  Nov 29, 2018 288   California Baptist W 70-69 63%    
  Dec 02, 2018 120   @ Valparaiso L 64-74 14%    
  Dec 06, 2018 234   Pepperdine L 70-72 52%    
  Dec 16, 2018 249   @ UTEP L 67-68 35%    
  Dec 22, 2018 165   Loyola Marymount L 68-74 40%    
  Dec 28, 2018 212   @ Air Force L 66-69 29%    
  Dec 30, 2018 211   @ Western Michigan L 68-71 29%    
  Jan 09, 2019 342   Cal St. Northridge W 70-62 82%    
  Jan 12, 2019 177   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-72 23%    
  Jan 17, 2019 143   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 66-74 18%    
  Jan 19, 2019 201   Hawaii L 65-69 47%    
  Jan 23, 2019 317   @ Cal Poly W 69-66 50%    
  Jan 26, 2019 90   @ UC Irvine L 61-73 11%    
  Jan 31, 2019 317   Cal Poly W 69-66 69%    
  Feb 02, 2019 131   UC Davis L 62-71 31%    
  Feb 09, 2019 143   Cal St. Fullerton L 66-74 35%    
  Feb 14, 2019 177   UC Santa Barbara L 66-72 41%    
  Feb 16, 2019 201   @ Hawaii L 65-69 28%    
  Feb 23, 2019 189   Long Beach St. L 72-77 43%    
  Feb 27, 2019 342   @ Cal St. Northridge W 70-62 65%    
  Mar 02, 2019 90   UC Irvine L 61-73 24%    
  Mar 06, 2019 189   @ Long Beach St. L 72-77 25%    
  Mar 09, 2019 131   @ UC Davis L 62-71 16%    
Projected Record 10.3 - 18.7 6.1 - 9.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 2.8 4.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.4 5.0 1.9 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.4 2.8 6.5 5.8 1.8 0.1 17.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.4 8.4 5.4 1.6 0.1 22.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 6.4 5.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 18.6 8th
9th 0.5 2.1 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.9 9th
Total 0.5 2.4 5.9 9.7 12.1 14.1 13.5 12.3 9.9 8.1 5.4 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 99.4% 0.2    0.2 0.1
13-3 61.4% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0
12-4 31.1% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 8.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 50.8% 50.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 25.2% 24.4% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1%
14-2 0.2% 25.6% 25.4% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3%
13-3 0.8% 15.6% 15.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-4 1.8% 15.8% 15.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5
11-5 3.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.9
10-6 5.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.2
9-7 8.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.2 7.9
8-8 9.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.8
7-9 12.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.2
6-10 13.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 13.5
5-11 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
4-12 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.1
3-13 9.7% 9.7
2-14 5.9% 5.9
1-15 2.4% 2.4
0-16 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%